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Journal of the Geological Society

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What is to be forecast: outbreak of eruption or possible paroxysm? The example of the Guadeloupe Soufrière

Forecasting the outbreak of a volcanic eruption is superfluous, since paroxysms occur not at the start but during the development of eruptions, and very few eruptions prove dangerous for neighbouring populations. It is important to predict whether or not an eruption will culminate in a climax, and if so, of what type, when and where. Only a naturalistic approach, and not a 'modelistic' one, can allow volcanologists with experience of erupting volcanoes to predict the development of an eruption. The 1976 eruption of Soufrière, Guadeloupe, is an example of the total failure of the modelistic approach and the reliability of the naturalistic one.

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				R. N. Thompson Magmatism of the British Tertiary Volcanic Province Scottish Journal of Geology, March 1, 1982; 18(1): 49 - 107. [Abstract] [PDF]